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Causal Inference

With Prof. Linda Valeri at Mailman.

“What would have happened if we had done something different?” the Counterfactual, and is a lovely question we’ve all asked in our personal lives. It’s pretty important in science for all the commonsensical reasons you can think of. Finance Bros, whose work is of critical importance to the human species, have spent more time and shed more tears than you or I or scientists ruminating wistfully over this exact question.

Description, Prediction, Causation​

There are a few things you can do as a researcher. You can offer:

  1. Description
    This is how the world is. “How is blood pressure associated with age?”
  2. Prediction
    What will happen? “Is this patient going to be readmitted to the ER?”
  3. Causation
    What would happen? “Would mortality change if Medicare were expanded?”
  4. Bonus: Prescription
    What should we do in the world knowing what we know?

We’ll look at how smart people have studied #3.